An All Progressives Congress figure, Iliyasu Kwankwaso, has dismissed the idea that Atiku Abubakar can lead a successful challenge against President Bola Tinubu in 2027. His case rests on a comparison with the late Muhammadu Buhari, whom he says carried far greater political influence in northern Nigeria. Buhari, who won the presidency twice, built a personal following in the region that outlasted his time in office. Atiku, by Kwankwaso's reading, has never enjoyed that kind of acceptance in the north, and without it the coalition math against an incumbent simply does not close. The former vice president has run for the top job repeatedly, most recently in 2023, when he finished second to Tinubu. Voices inside the opposition have been arguing for weeks about whether another Atiku candidature helps or hurts the push to unseat the ruling party. Kwankwaso belongs clearly to the school that says the party should look elsewhere for a standard bearer. The argument points toward a bruising pre-campaign season, with northern support likely to decide who gets to face Tinubu.